Competing Ceasefire Proposals Complicate Russia-Ukraine Peace Efforts

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated this week as competing ceasefire proposals were rejected by both sides, threatening to derail U.S.-backed peace negotiations. Russian officials accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of endangering Victory Day celebrations after he dismissed Moscow’s unilateral 72-hour ceasefire, while renewing his call for a more substantial 30-day pause in hostilities.

The diplomatic impasse comes amid intensified Russian drone strikes on Ukrainian cities and continued territorial gains by Russian forces in eastern Ukraine, according to AP News.

Ceasefire Proposals Reveal Wide Divide

Russian officials announced a unilateral 72-hour ceasefire ahead of May 9 Victory Day celebrations, which commemorate the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. The Kremlin described the move as a test of “Kyiv’s readiness to find ways for long-term sustainable peace between Russia and Ukraine.”

Zelenskyy promptly rejected the proposal, instead renewing calls for a more comprehensive 30-day pause in hostilities initially proposed by the United States. The Ukrainian leader characterized Russia’s offer as a propaganda maneuver rather than a genuine peace initiative.

This led to a sharp rebuke from Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, who warned: “In the event of a real provocation on Victory Day, no one will guarantee that May 10 will come in Kyiv.” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov similarly stated that Russia expects “not ambiguous, but final statements, and most importantly, actions aimed at de-escalation of the conflict during the holidays.”

U.S. Peace Efforts Facing Challenges

The dispute over ceasefire terms comes as the Trump administration attempts to broker a “durable solution” to the conflict within the next 100 days. According to Russia Matters, Vice President JD Vance recently indicated that the administration is now leaving negotiations primarily to the warring parties.

“It is going to be up to the Russians and Ukrainians now that each side knows what the other’s terms for peace are. It’s going to be up to them to come to an agreement and stop this brutal, brutal conflict,” Vance said in a recent interview.

This represents a shift in U.S. diplomatic strategy. As State Department official Bruce recently noted, “We are not going to fly around the world at the drop of a hat to mediate meetings, that it is now between the two parties, and now – now is the time that they need to present and develop concrete ideas about how this conflict is going to end.”

Territorial Gains Continue

Meanwhile, fighting continues along the front lines, with Russian forces making slow but steady progress in eastern Ukraine. According to Russia Matters’ May 7 War Report Card, Russia gained approximately 33 square miles of Ukrainian territory in the past week – an area equivalent to about 1.5 Manhattan islands.

Russian forces are currently focusing on areas near Sumy and south of Pokrovsk, continuing their strategy of gradual territorial acquisition that has characterized recent months of the conflict. Over the past month, Russia has gained a total of 137 square miles, bringing its total control to around 19% of Ukraine’s territory – an area roughly equivalent to the U.S. state of Ohio.

Notably, Ukrainian forces still maintain a small foothold within Russian territory, controlling approximately 5 square miles across Russia’s Kursk and Belgorod regions. This Ukrainian presence on Russian soil has complicated Moscow’s narrative ahead of Victory Day celebrations.

Civilian Targets Hit in Renewed Attacks

The diplomatic tensions have been accompanied by a surge in attacks on civilian infrastructure. A recent Russian drone strike on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, wounded 47 people according to local officials. The attack hit a high-rise apartment block and triggered fires at 12 locations across four central districts of the city.

Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov confirmed that an 11-year-old child was among those injured, with eight victims requiring hospitalization. The attack prompted another appeal from Zelenskyy for more decisive support from Ukraine’s international allies.

In Kyiv, municipal workers were seen clearing debris and burnt vehicles from residential areas following another Russian drone attack on May 4. The strike created a crater in a residential neighborhood and damaged multiple civilian vehicles.

Putin Addresses Nuclear Concerns

Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to ease international concerns about potential nuclear escalation last week, stating that there has been “no need” to use nuclear weapons in the conflict so far. According to AP News, Putin expressed hope that such a scenario would not arise.

However, his comments came against the backdrop of increasingly harsh rhetoric from other Russian officials. The continued references to potential escalation have maintained international anxiety about the conflict’s nuclear dimensions, despite diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions.

Divergent Peace Proposals

The current peace efforts remain hampered by fundamental disagreements on key issues. According to Reuters, documents from recent diplomatic talks revealed major differences between U.S., European, and Ukrainian positions on crucial matters including territory, sanctions relief, security guarantees, and the size of Ukraine’s military.

One particularly contentious issue is the future status of territories currently occupied by Russia. U.S. proposals reportedly called for legal recognition of Russia’s control over Crimea, plus de facto recognition of Russia’s hold on areas of southern and eastern Ukraine. European and Ukrainian counterproposals strongly rejected these territorial concessions.

Similarly, the parties differ on sanctions relief. U.S. proposals suggest removing sanctions on Russia dating back to its 2014 annexation of Crimea, while European and Ukrainian counterproposals insist that sanctions should only be “subject to gradual easing after a sustainable peace is achieved” and could be reinstated if Russia breaches any peace deal.

Casualties Continue to Mount

As the conflict approaches its fourth year, casualties continue to mount on both sides. According to U.S. intelligence estimates cited by Russia Matters, Russian forces have suffered more than 790,000 killed or wounded, with an additional 48,000 listed as missing. Ukrainian casualties are estimated at approximately 400,000 killed or wounded, with 35,000 missing.

The human cost extends beyond military casualties to include millions of displaced civilians. An estimated 10.2 million Ukrainians – nearly a quarter of the country’s pre-invasion population – have been displaced by the conflict, with 3.7 million internally displaced and 6.5 million seeking refuge abroad.