Why Rural Voters Are Redefining U.S. Politics

In the 2024 election, 78% of farming-dependent counties backed Donald Trump. He won 433 out of 444 such counties nationwide. This shows a big shift in how people vote in the U.S.

The 2024 election saw a big move to the right in rural areas. Trump got 62% of the rural vote, up four points from 2020. He also won the most remote areas by a big margin, 69% to 31% over Kamala Harris.

This growing gap between city and country voters is a big challenge for democracy. Even though they make up a smaller part of the population, they have a big say in national decisions. This includes things like farm subsidies and spending on roads and buildings.

The impact goes beyond just voting numbers. As small towns and farms vote together more, their power changes politics. It changes how candidates run, what parties stand for, and how leaders make laws.

The Shift in Voting Patterns

Rural areas in America have seen a big change in politics. Voting margins have moved strongly towards Republicans over the past 20 years. This change has reshaped the way elections work and presents new challenges for both parties.

Missouri is a key example of this shift. In 2008, Barack Obama lost the state by just 3,903 votes. He won big in St. Louis and Kansas City but also did well in rural areas like Bates and Vernon counties.

By 2024, the picture had changed a lot. Donald Trump won Missouri by 18 points, getting 80 percent of the vote in Bates County. This is a huge 30 to 40 point increase in rural areas in just 16 years.

“We’re seeing a big change in how rural areas vote,” says Dr. Katherine Cramer, a political scientist. “Rural folks see Democrats as being out of touch with their lives.”

Demographic changes play a big role in this shift. Young people are moving to cities for school and jobs. This has made rural areas older, with a median age of 43.5 years, compared to 36.2 in cities.

Economic issues have also played a part. Farming has faced big challenges from global markets and consolidation. This has made people anxious and open to Republican promises of economic growth.

“Rural America is very different today,” notes William Frey, a demographer at Brookings. “Young, educated people have left, leaving behind older, more conservative voters.”

This change affects more than just Missouri. States like Iowa, which Obama won twice, now lean Republican. In 2020, Trump won Iowa by 8.2 points, with rural areas voting heavily for him.

Looking at counties shows how fast this change happened. In Vernon County, Missouri, Republicans went from a 9-point lead in 2008 to a 49-point lead in 2020. This is a 40-point swing in just three elections.

This shift helps Republicans in the Electoral College, even if they don’t win the national vote. Rural states have more power in the Senate and Electoral College, making their votes count more.

Democrats are mostly found in cities, which makes it hard for them to win in rural areas. Republicans now win many rural counties, which helps them in elections.

This change affects how districts are drawn for Congress and state legislatures. Democrats are clustered in cities, making it hard for them to compete in rural areas. This gives Republicans an edge in the House and state legislatures.

Key Issues for Rural Voters

Rural voters face a unique challenge in American politics. They often support policies that hurt their own economy. This is true in agricultural areas, where economic needs and political choices don’t always match.

Agricultural policy is at the heart of this issue. Farmers usually favor free markets and dislike government help. But when times get tough, they turn to the very help they once opposed. This shows how cultural values and messages shape rural votes.

Trade policies have hit rural economies hard. President Trump’s tough stance on trade led to tariffs from China and Mexico. This hurt farmers in Texas and the Midwest, who saw taxes on exports soar.

Wisconsin’s ginseng farmers were hit hard too, with exports dropping by over 60%. Despite these losses, many rural voters stuck with Trump’s trade policies.

Dr. Katherine Cramer of the University of Wisconsin-Madison explains why. “Rural voters often choose candidates who share their values and seem to understand their struggles, even if those policies don’t help their wallets.”

Healthcare is another big issue in rural America politics. Over 140 rural hospitals have closed, leaving many without access to care. Rural residents now travel much farther for emergency care, a serious problem.

Digital access is also a big problem. About 22.3% of rural Americans lack reliable internet, compared to 1.5% in cities. This gap became critical during the pandemic, when online work and learning became essential.

Environmental rules also cause tension. Farmers see these rules as city-imposed, not understanding their needs. But climate change is real, threatening their way of life with droughts, unpredictable weather, and changing seasons.

Rural areas are economically fragile but have a big say in politics. They have more power in the Electoral College and Senate, even though they’re less populated. This means candidates must listen to their concerns, even if they’re small in number.

“The gap between rural and urban isn’t just about policy,” says Dr. Robert Wuthnow. “It’s about different views on government, community, and national identity.”

To understand rural voting, we must look beyond money. Voting is about more than just the economy. It’s about feeling seen, valued, and respected by leaders. This makes rural voters both influential and vulnerable to policies that could harm their economy.

The Role of Political Messaging

In small town politics, how candidates share their plans is key to winning over rural voters. The gap between city-based campaigns and rural areas has grown. This is because strategists often make messages from cities, not understanding rural needs.

Democratic outreach has hit a snag. Lynlee Thorne, a political director, bluntly says, “We have the best policies, you dumb hicks.” This kind of talk has pushed away rural supporters.

Rural voters often say, “I’ve never met a Democrat.” This shows a big problem in building relationships between Democrats and rural America communities.

Republicans, on the other hand, are more present in small towns. They use local parties, churches, and groups to connect. This makes their messages stick, even if they don’t always help rural economies.

Jess Piper suggests a change: “We start by being there, by being around more than a few weeks before an election.” This shows that building trust takes time, not just a quick visit.

The media in rural areas also makes messaging hard. Small towns have lost local papers but gained partisan media. This creates bubbles where messages are filtered, making it hard for voters to get real information.

Cultural signals matter a lot in rural politics. If campaigns don’t get rural culture, their messages don’t connect. They might even trigger negative reactions.

Thorne’s Storyteller Project is a new way to reach rural voters. It uses simple tools to share real voices on local issues. These ads are more genuine than polished city-made messages.

This approach aims to close the authenticity gap. Treating rural voters as uninformed or against their interests shows a lack of understanding. It makes them feel like city politicians don’t get small town life.

The messaging challenge goes beyond policy to identity and respect. Rural voters see liberal messages as dismissive of their values and lifestyle. This makes them resistant to policies meant to help them.

Good messaging in rural areas focuses on community values and local issues. It respects rural identity and expertise. It doesn’t see rural voters as problems to be solved.

As the divide between rural and urban grows, messaging plays a big role. To bridge this gap, campaigns need to engage authentically with rural life. They must recognize rural voters’ role in shaping their own futures.

Solutions and Moving Forward

Rebuilding political engagement in rural America needs smart community organizing that tackles local issues. Thorne says, “Direct voter contact is key. But we must prepare the ground first.” This means investing in local projects, candidates, and issues that matter to rural folks.

The Rural-Urban Bridge Initiative (RUBI) shows how to do this. It has trained thousands in 20 states. These programs teach Democrats to connect with rural voters in a new way. Yet, Democrats have only about 300 county chairs in a country with 3,244 counties.

Good rural politics means being there all year, not just during elections. Successful efforts use real messages that honor rural values and solve real problems. For example, the Biden-Harris administration’s work on broadband, clean water, and fighting wildfires shows they get it.

Groups working to bridge the gap know rural voters want policies that help them. This includes support for small farmers and better healthcare in hard-to-reach areas. The way forward is to engage with rural communities, understanding their challenges and building a political dialogue that includes everyone.